The risk of a correction or new bear market in shares

Published: January 23, 2014

Download PDF copy Watch video Since the height of the Eurozone public debt crisis in September/October 2011, global shares are up 58% and Australian shares are up 37%. After such strong gains an obvious issue is whether shares have got ahead of themselves, leaving them vulnerable to a fall. This note looks at the risks. […]

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2014 – a list of lists

Published: January 15, 2014

Download PDF copy 2013 turned out to be a very good year for investors in well-diversified portfolios as the threats of the last few years receded and global growth prospects improved. The US did not have a fiscal crisis, the Eurozone continued to stabilise, Japan recovered, Chinese growth stabilised and Australia saw signs that low […]

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The Fed tapers – what it means for investors

Published: December 19, 2013

Download PDF copy In what was perhaps the most anticipated event this year the US Federal Reserve has announced it will reduce the pace of its third quantitative easing (QE3) program by $US10bn a month. The Fed has been foreshadowing a “tapering” since May 22nd so it’s a surprise to no one. This note looks […]

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Review of 2013, outlook for 2014

Published: December 11, 2013

  Watch Investment Implication video Download PDF copy 2013 – another good year for investors 2013 was notable for what did not happen: the US did not go off the fiscal cliff or default on its debt and the much feared inflation lift off failed to materialise; the euro did not fall apart despite a […]

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A better 2014 for the Aust economy & profits

Published: December 4, 2013

Download PDF copy Ever since major mining investment projects, such as Olympic Dam, started to be cancelled over a year ago and it became clear the mining investment boom was coming to an end, much uncertainty has surrounded the outlook for the Australian economy. This was not helped by a mediocre initial response to interest […]

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Deflation or rising inflation – what is the risk?

Published: November 28, 2013

Download PDF copy Ever since the global economy started to "recover" from the global financial crisis in 2009 a constant concern has been that all the money printing by central banks in the US, Europe and Japan will result in sharply higher inflation in developed countries. This has not happened. In fact over the last […]

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Eugene Fama, Robert Shiller, DAA and me

Published: November 26, 2013

Download PDF copy For twenty five years or so my core focus at work has been on the allocation of assets – shares, bonds, property, cash, Australian, global, etc – across multi asset portfolios. Some might say that’s a job that naturally flows from being an economist with a macro (ie big picture) focus. But […]

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China on track

Published: November 13, 2013

Download PDF copy It seems that every 6 -12 months the China perma bears roll out their worries again. At the core of such concerns are a bunch of structural issues: that China’s investment driven growth model is unsustainable, that its housing sector is overheated, that it has lost competitiveness and most significantly that it […]

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The search for yield and return – has it gone too far or is there more to go?

Published: November 6, 2013

Download PDF The collapse in short term interest rates and associated fall in long term bond yields has seen investors seek out decent investment yield in assets as diverse as corporate debt, property, infrastructure and shares. And more recently this has broadened into a general search for higher returns as confidence in the economic outlook […]

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Light at the end of the tunnel for Australian retail sales

Published: October 24, 2013

Download PDF Four years of poor retail sales When looking for growth in non-mining investments to fill the gap left by the mining investment boom, retail sales are critically important accounting for nearly 20% of economic activity in Australia. As is well known Australian retailers have had it tough for nearly four years now. Nominal […]

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