The Australian economy and profits – seven reasons to be upbeat

Published: March 2, 2017

For the last few years we have heard constant predictions of a recession in Australia as the mining boom turned to bust and a housing bust was seen to follow. Some even went so far as to say that an imminent recession was “unavoidable”. Those fears intensified after the September quarter GDP data showed the […]

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Is Donald Trump’s honeymoon with investors over?

Published: February 2, 2017

Since the US election last November US and global shares rallied around 8% and Australian shares rallied around 12% to their recent highs. Related to this the US dollar, bond yields and some commodity prices also pushed significantly higher. Optimism regarding Donald Trump’s pro-growth policies were not the only factor playing a role in this […]

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2017 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Published: January 25, 2017

Despite a terrible start to the year and a few political surprises along the way, 2016 saw good returns for diversified investors who held their nerve. Balanced super funds had returns around 7.5%, which is pretty good given inflation was just 1.5%. 2017 is commencing with less fear than seen a year ago but there […]

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Review of 2016, outlook for 2017 – looking better despite the political noise

Published: December 8, 2016

2016 – a messy but okay year US share market analyst Joe Granville once observed that “if it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong”. 2016 was perhaps remarkable for the things that many thought were obvious at the start of the year but did not happen: the global economy did not see plunging growth and deflation; the […]

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The end of the super cycle bull market in bonds?

Published: November 15, 2016

From record lows just after the Brexit vote – government bond yields have spiked higher. Ten year bond yields have risen from 1.36% in the US to 2.2%, from -0.19% in Germany to 0.31% and from 1.81% in Australia to 2.64% in four months. This in turn has led to sharp falls in high yield […]

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Donald Trump elected President of the US. Implications for investors and Australia.

Published: November 10, 2016

After a seemingly long and difficult campaign Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States with the Republican Party retaining control of the House, and the Senate, in Congress. Just as we saw with the Brexit vote, the combination of rising inequality, stagnant middle incomes and the disenchantment of white non-college educated males […]

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